Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict – according to new research by the Global Carbon Project. The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.
Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict. While global energy demand continues to rise, two thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
However, the report – published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature Climate Change – finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil CO2 emissions.
With emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) projected to increase slightly this year, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year. The remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tonnes – equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.
With CO2 still rapidly accumulating in the atmosphere, the dangerous impacts of climate change continue to increase.
El Niño expected to have a significant impact on the land carbon sink
The report also assesses natural sinks, in other words, the carbon uptake of land ecosystems and oceans. It finds that the land sink returned to former levels after a severe weakening during the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern.
However, the powerful 2026 El Niño is expected to have a significant impact in the coming year.
The Global Carbon Budget is produced annually by at the Global Carbon Project, which consists of almost 100 institutions around the world. Six of those partners are included in the JOHN consortium.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study. “The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline.”
Other key findings include
- The ocean carbon sink has absorbed 11.1 ± 2.3 GtCO2 per year in the past decade, 27% of total emissions. The ocean sink has been relatively stagnant since 2016, largely in response to climate change and variability
- The land carbon sink has absorbed 9.2 ± 2.4 GtCO2 per year in the past decade, 22% of total emissions. The land sink has been relatively stagnant since 2000. It shows a full rebound from the 2023-24 El Niño to 13.3 GtCO2 per year in 2025.
- The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 ppm in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
JOHN aims to strengthen information sources towards the Global Carbon Budget
The Global Carbon Budget uses data from many data sources, including ICOS data, that’s made available through the ICOS Carbon Portal and differentother global data networks, such as the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO GAW), FLUXNET and the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT).
JOHN aims to strengthen the observing systems that underpin the Global Carbon Budget by identifying critical gaps, improving data sharing and exploring new technologies to make monitoring more effective and sustainable. The project will also address challenges related to long-term funding and governance.
As part of this work, JOHN will survey around 100 Global Carbon Project authors and the wider scientific community to identify improvements needed in the timeliness, geographical coverage, availability and quality of observational data. The findings will be compared with the requirements of the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W) to help prioritise future improvements and investments.
The survey will be led by the University of East Anglia, in collaboration with the University of Exeter and ICOS ERIC.
Learn more
- View the 2026 Global Carbon Budget here: https://www.icos-cp.eu/impact/science/global-carbon-budget
- Read the article Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R.M., Canadell, J.G. et al. A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02821-8